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IRDR to be part of new international security project to improve disaster risk management

20 October 2023

Academics from the IRDR will be part of the international security project 鈥 AGILE 鈥 which seeks to develop novel tools and methodologies for understanding, anticipating, and managing High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events.

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This is crucial because new and emerging risks caused by climate change, cyber threats, infectious diseases and terrorism have changed the risk landscape for unexpected events and call for better disaster risk management.

High-profile crises and mega-disasters

HILPs are described as 鈥渆vents or occurrences that cannot easily be anticipated, arise randomly and unexpectedly, and have immediate effects and significant impacts.听They include high-profile crises and mega-disasters such as the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear听Accident, the 9/11 terrorist attack in the U.S. and the COVID-19 pandemic as well as lower-profile, persistent events such as flooding, droughts and cyclones. Despite the threats posed by these unexpected events, there is no agreed definition nor methodology to characterise HILP events. To overcome the current knowledge and capability gaps, the European Union is providing funding to a ground-breaking transdisciplinary project within the Horizon Europe Framework Programme.

Transdisciplinary approach is needed

鈥淭he complex and dynamic nature of HILP requires new expertise, and this is possible only by moving beyond the 鈥渢raditional鈥 disciplines of academia鈥, explains听project coordinator Gordana Cveljo of Johanniter-Unfall-Hilfe e. V. 鈥淎GILE brings together top scholars from different fields to better understand and strengthen resilience to HILP and to support an impact鈥搊riented approach that addresses the actual needs of practitioners."

Novel methodology

The applied research approach of the project is dedicated to implementation by and for practitioners and policy-makers. It is guided by their needs and requirements in risk and resilience management on local, regional and national levels. The project will combine and integrate a wide range of established and innovative methodologies into a novel and replicable multi-sectoral risk and resilience stress testing methodology to better:

  • UNDERSTAND (Systems theory, Lateral thinking, Strategic Foresight, Machine Learning)
  • ANTICIPATE (Scenario Building & table-top exercises, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Machine Learning) and
  • MANAGE (Resilience assessment, capability development strategic training)

In addition, AGILE will also provide recommendations to key European and international policy priorities and global challenges.

The AGILE consortium comprises Universities, Research Centers, NGOs, First responders, and local, regional and national authorities. AGILE formally started on the 1st October 2023 and held听its Kick-Off Meeting with all 14 project partners at Ca鈥 Foscari University of Venice, Italy on 19th听and 20th Oct 2023. The 最准的六合彩论坛 IRDR academic lead, Dr Gianluca Pescaroli, attended the event and will continue to represent 最准的六合彩论坛 throughout the project.

Project partners

Non-Profits/Authorities:

  • Johanniter-Unfall-Hilfe e. V., Germany
  • The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Romania (Ministerul Afacerilor Interne), Romania
  • National Commissioner of the Icelandic Police, Iceland
  • Veiligheidsregio Rotterdam-Rijnmond, The Netherlands
  • City of Rotterdam (Gemeente Rotterdam), The Netherlands
  • Energy and Environment Agency of Arr谩bida (Ag锚ncia de Energia e Ambiente da Arr谩bida), Portugal

Universities & Research Centers:

  • G.E. Pukhov Institute for Modelling in Energy Engineering, Ukraine
  • Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
  • Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici), Italy
  • Pacific Disaster Center, University of Hawaii, USA
  • 最准的六合彩论坛, England

Expert & consultancy organisations

  • Prepared International UG, Germany
  • Factor Social (Consultoria em Psico-sociologia e Ambiente Lda), Portugal
  • ARTTIC Innovation GmbH, Germany

Project Advisory Board:

  • United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Switzerland
  • Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, Switzerland
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, France
  • IFRC Risk Informed Early Action Partnership, Switzerland
  • Greater London Authority, City Resilience Manager, England
  • Dallas Fort Worth Airport, USA

For more information and continuous updates see the AGILE website:听or contact the IRDR's听Dr Gianluca Pescaroli.